Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 26.166481 28.961659 32.144482 36.087757 40.916544 4.674192e+01 54.474299
2025-02-16 22.331432 25.928325 30.391959 36.522305 45.055360 5.711678e+01 76.836164
2025-02-23 19.563722 23.451097 28.569583 36.154074 47.853861 6.691159e+01 105.672177
2025-03-02 17.755829 21.815107 27.416531 36.259483 51.214228 7.924574e+01 152.929503
2025-03-09 16.287527 20.381580 26.235571 35.952306 53.704982 9.159628e+01 224.508438
2025-03-16 15.112683 19.189004 25.187290 35.568727 55.868090 1.049555e+02 348.905134
2025-03-23 14.154168 18.189973 24.273161 35.188137 57.879379 1.199298e+02 607.795352
2025-03-30 13.385862 17.387991 23.552205 34.986415 60.200059 1.386618e+02 1432.837375
2025-04-06 12.613128 16.507396 22.597567 34.168014 60.829505 1.529657e+02 5138.810328
2025-04-13 12.378398 16.426213 22.939453 35.894754 68.505882 2.114263e+02 NaN
2025-04-20 11.831808 15.808664 22.299348 35.516539 70.403627 2.474000e+02 NaN
2025-04-27 11.430356 15.391422 21.962389 35.714438 74.157821 3.124834e+02 NaN
2025-05-04 11.078912 15.037856 21.717029 36.106321 78.962746 4.239380e+02 NaN
2025-05-11 10.718819 14.646243 21.366745 36.208522 82.986568 5.832015e+02 NaN
2025-05-18 10.316210 14.159288 20.798711 35.712999 84.647152 7.527571e+02 NaN
2025-05-25 10.012506 13.819824 20.477447 35.761927 88.649988 1.175413e+03 NaN
2025-06-01 9.691270 13.432323 20.033367 35.439869 91.016524 1.853222e+03 NaN
2025-06-08 9.388057 13.059706 19.589954 35.056585 93.018730 3.335148e+03 NaN
2025-06-15 9.107819 12.712737 19.171738 34.681574 94.979059 8.523781e+03 NaN
2025-06-22 8.865116 12.419020 18.837514 34.483256 97.866656 7.364449e+07 NaN
2025-06-29 8.578669 12.036862 18.304353 33.683796 97.158483 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 8.546890 12.097549 18.658147 35.368719 112.309658 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 8.328596 11.818207 18.302122 34.999628 114.529835 NaN NaN